The BJP led NDA in 2019 swept these states winning 212 seats and BJP alone won 183 seats which is near to 200. 7 out of 12 states in this region are bipolar between BJP and Congress which consists of 146 seats. They will sweep MP (29) and CG (11) very easily in any scenario given their track record in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. The biggest state in this region/entire India UP sends 80 Lok Sabha seats and BJP has won 71(+2) in 2014 and 62(+2) in 2019. This time they won’t be facing SP-BSP-RLD alliance which costed them few seats last time. They will win 70+ seats. BJP will sweep UK(5),HP(4), RJ(26) and Delhi(7) for third consecutive time. In worst case they will loose one seat Mandi in HP and in Haryana if they contest in alliance with JJP their tally will reduce by <=3 as they have to allot seats to JJP. They will most probably give 3 seats for them because in 2014 when they contested in alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi party they followed 7:3 seat sharing formula. BJP may loose one seat Nagaur in Rajasthan if RLP contests alone or joins Congress alliance.
Bihar and Jharkhand are two states which are dominated equally by both national parties like BJP, Congress and regional parties like RJD, JMM. The alliance equations has changed in Bihar last year when Nitish Kumar ditched BJP to join hands with his arch rival RJD for second time. BJP will be facing a strong alliance of RJD,JD(U),Congress and LEFT parties in the coming election. But this is not the first time for them as they have faced RJD+INC and JD(U) alliance in 2014 and won 31 seats. This time like in 2014 they will go with smaller parties like LJP,RLSP,HAM and VIP. At maximum they can win 31 seats or they will be able to retain their 17 MPs and if its allies win few seats they will get 25 seats from this state. BJP will sweep Jharkhand(14) like it did in 2014 and 2019. They will give Giridih Lok Sabha to their ally AJSU. Best scenario NDA - 14 or 12 like 2014 and 2019.
BJP will retain its 3 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. Shiromani Akali Dal has snapped ties with BJP over the three farm laws so the BJP will be contesting the Lok Sabha election without SAD for the first time. If SAD rejoins NDA then they will contest in alliance with them. The BJP has inducted many Congress leaders since last year Assembly election and with this they have got candidates for the 13 seats in the state. BJP usually contest three seats Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Amritsar with Akali Dal. The first two are Hindu majority and they have won this seats in last two elections. They will retain those two seats and if other star leaders like Amrinder, Sunil Jakhar and others wins and SAD joins the alliance they will win 6 seats.
Western India ( Total seats - 78)
BJP led NDA swept two states and two UTs in this region by winning 69 seats. BJP will sweep Gujarat and no one on Earth will have any doubt on that. In Maharashtra its ally turned foe Shiv Sena has split into two factions one led by CM Eknath Shinde and another one by EX- CM Uddhav Thackeray. Shinde Sena is in alliance with BJP and Uddhav Sena with NCP and Congress. It has to be seen whether Shinde Sena can prove itself as the original Shiv Sena faction. If it does then NDA will repeat its 2019 performance. The BJP has set a target 45 for the upcoming election and is working towards it.
BJP has been winning the Dadra and Nagar Haveli seat since 2009 but in 2019 Congress rebel who stood has an independent won the seat. And in the bypoll in 2021 Shiv Sena won the seat, its first Lok Sabha outside Maharashtra. This seat will be won either by BJP or Shiv Sena. Daman and Diu is the stronghold of BJP and has been winning it since 2009. They will win this seat comfortably.
North Goa constituency is a stronghold of BJP and it is winning this seat since 2009. South Goa has been changing its MP after every 5 years and this trend is in favour of BJP this time. They will win both the seats in 2024.
Eastern India (Total seats - 63)
The BJP won 26 seats last time from this region. It made deep inroads in West Bengal winning 18 seats and Odisha winning 8 seats. The BJP this time may loose few seats in worst case scenario and in best case it may even increase its tally. In Odisha it will retain the seats and may double its tally.
North East India ( Total seats - 23 )
The BJP won 12 seats and its allies won 5 seats totally sweeping the region. BJP will retain all the 9 seats that it won in Assam if its allies perform well then it can win all the 14 seats. BJP will win Inner Manipur constituency with more margin this time. They came second in Outer Manipur last time and it will win this seat this time or it will be won by its ally NPF or NPP. Out of 2 seats in Meghalaya Shillong will be won by Congress definitely if its only popular leader Vincent pala contests. Tura is a stronghold of NPP and it will this in any scenario. Sikkim is again a sure shot for NDA, it does not have any Opposition as most of the elected members of SDF joined BJP in 2019. Tripura will again be a clean sweep for BJP. Tripura West is a constituency of MoS Pratima Bhowmik and this will go with BJP even if INC + CPI(M) contests together. Another one Tripura East will also be win by BJP easily. Arunachal Pradesh is a strong hold of BJP and they will retain their two seats. Arunachal West is a strong hold of Union Minister Kiren Rijiju and he will win comfortably. Arunachal East will also go with BJP way. NDA ally MNF will the lone seat in Mizoram.
South India 130
BJP won only 30 seats and most of them came from Karnataka. They are historically weak in this region and Regional parties play bigger role here. Karnataka is a BJP stronghold and they are winning more than 15 seats since 2004 and has been increasing their vote share in every election. It will be a clean sweep for BJP in 2024. Even if Congress contests in alliance with JD(S) like last time they will get wiped out. Telangana will see BJP increasing its tally as Congress has become weak. It will be a bipolar contest between BJP and BRS, these two will win equal number of seats 8 out of 17. Lone seat in Pondicherry will be won by NDA. Whoever contests whether BJP or its ally AINRC will win easily. BJP is not a player in Kerala politics and chances are very less for them. They are working on few seats and will concentrate only on those to expand in the state. Andhra Pradesh is also a weak state for BJP and if they contest in alliance with TDP and Jana Sena the alliance will win few seats. BJP ally ADMK has been split into two factions and BJP is trying to unite both the factions. If they are successful in uniting the two factions then they may 5 to 10 seats.
Union Territories 2
Andaman is a swing seat and this time it will be won by BJP as last time Congress won the seat. Lakshadweep is a stronghold of Congress and last time they lost it narrowly to NCP and next time they will win it.
Comments
Post a Comment